Curiosity probabilities
How likely is that?
Browse ballpark odds for rare (and not-so-rare) events — then compare any two and get a shareable “You're N× more likely…” card.
Featured compares
⚡ Struck by lightning vs 🎟️ Winning Powerball jackpot
You're 19,098.1× more likely to be struck by lightning
Periods differ — caveat on compare page
🦈 Dying in a shark attack vs ⚡ Struck by lightning
You're 245.0× more likely to be struck by lightning
✈️ Dying in a plane crash vs 🚗 Dying in a car accident
You're 118,279.6× more likely to die in a car accident
Periods differ — caveat on compare page
🃏 Royal flush (5-card poker) vs ⛳ Hole-in-one (amateur)
You're 52.0× more likely to hit a hole-in-one
Periods differ — caveat on compare page
🐕 Being bitten by a dog vs 🦈 Dying in a shark attack
You're 53,543.8× more likely to be bitten by a dog
Periods differ — caveat on compare page
🤢 Getting food poisoning vs 🎟️ Winning Powerball jackpot
You're 48.7 million× more likely to get food poisoning
Periods differ — caveat on compare page
☄️ Hit by a meteorite vs ⚡ Struck by lightning
You're 104.6× more likely to be struck by lightning
Periods differ — caveat on compare page
🎂 Living to 100 vs 💰 Winning Mega Millions jackpot
You're 3.0 million× more likely to live to 100
Periods differ — caveat on compare page
🎳 Bowling a perfect game (300) vs 🃏 Royal flush (5-card poker)
You're 56.5× more likely to bowl a perfect game
Periods differ — caveat on compare page
🎉 Shared birthday (23 people) vs 🎫 Winning a raffle
You're 50.0× more likely to share a birthday in a group of 23
Periods differ — caveat on compare page
All events
Struck by lightning
1 in 15,300
lifetime (US)
Dying in a shark attack
1 in 3,748,067
lifetime (US)
Winning Powerball jackpot
1 in 292,201,338
per ticket
Winning Mega Millions jackpot
1 in 302,575,350
per ticket
Dying in a plane crash
1 in 11,000,000
per flight (commercial)
Dying in a car accident
1 in 93
lifetime (US)
Drowning
1 in 1,006
lifetime (US)
Dying in a fire
1 in 1,399
lifetime (US)
Dying from a fall
1 in 98
lifetime (US)
Dying in a tornado
1 in 60,000
lifetime (US avg)
Dying in an earthquake
1 in 150,000
lifetime (US avg)
Dying from an asteroid impact
1 in 75,000
lifetime (illustrative)
Hit by a meteorite
1 in 1,600,000
lifetime (illustrative)
Hole-in-one (amateur)
1 in 12,500
per round (amateur)
Bowling a perfect game (300)
1 in 11,500
per game (amateur)
Royal flush (5-card poker)
1 in 649,740
per 5-card hand
Finding a four-leaf clover
1 in 10,000
per clover inspected (illustrative)
Having identical twins
1 in 250
per birth (natural, approx.)
Living to 100
1 in 100
lifetime (approx. US birth cohort)
Being born on leap day
1 in 1,461
per birth (calendar)
Lost luggage
1 in 150
per passenger segment (illustrative)
Getting a middle seat
1 in 3
per coach seat (3-across)
Winning an Oscar (actor)
1 in 11,500,000
lifetime (random US adult, illustrative)
Becoming US president
1 in 10,000,000
lifetime (illustrative)
Killed by a falling coconut
1 in 500,000,000
lifetime (illustrative / myth-aware)
10 heads in a row
1 in 1,024
per sequence of 10 fair flips
Shared birthday (23 people)
~50.7% (about 1 in 2)
group of 23 people
Getting food poisoning
1 in 6
per year (US)
Being bitten by a dog
1 in 70
per year (US, illustrative)
Winning a raffle
1 in 100
per ticket (100-ticket raffle)